On November 17, Jon Gardey attended the University of Michigan’s 64th Annual Economic Outlook Conference in Ann Arbor where the United States Economic Outlook for 2017-2018 was presented and discussed. The discussion was very lively, coming just nine days after the unexpected presidential election results. While there were many opinions, there wasn’t anyone at the conference-including forecasters, presenters, and participants-who really had any idea of how the election results would impact the economy. The forecasters revised the inputs to the forecasting model during the nine days preceding the conference by assuming that (1) changes to the Affordable Care Act would slow the growth of transfers and associated subsidies, (2) personal and corporate tax rates would be lower, and (3) there would be higher budget deficits and more fiscal stimulus (spending).
The Executive Summary of the U.S. forecast can be viewed by downloading the PDF.